Travel Plans Disrupted

Olja Ivanic was excited about the upcoming visit from her cousins in Sweden to her Denver home this June. However, the mood shifted dramatically following a controversial meeting between President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. As a result, Ivanic’s relatives opted to cancel their trip, moving their vacation plans to Europe instead, expressing dismay over Trump’s treatment of a leader from a war-torn country.

Shifting Trends in U.S. Tourism

The U.S. tourism sector had high hopes for 2025, anticipating a strong influx of international visitors. Following a surge in 2024, tourism forecasts suggested a return to pre-pandemic levels. However, recent statistics indicate a troubling trend, with international arrivals dropping significantly in the early months of the year.

Data from the National Travel and Tourism Office reveals an 11.6% decrease in March arrivals compared to the same month in 2024. Overall, from January to March, 7.1 million overseas visitors entered the U.S.—a 3.3% decline from the previous year.

Revised Projections

Initially, the travel forecasting firm Tourism Economics predicted a 9% increase in international arrivals for 2025. However, a recent revision has led them to forecast a 9.4% decline instead. The company projects that the downturn could be most pronounced among Canadian travelers, who have reacted negatively to Trump’s tariffs and comments suggesting Canada might be incorporated into the U.S.

Flight Centre Travel Group Canada indicated a staggering 40% decrease in leisure bookings to U.S. destinations in March relative to the same month last year, prompting Air Canada to reduce its flight schedule to popular U.S. locales such as Florida and Las Vegas.

Diverse Reactions from International Visitors

The impact of perceptions regarding the U.S. has led many international travelers to rethink their plans. Ian Urquhart, a Canadian professor, canceled a much-anticipated trip to Las Vegas to protest Trump’s remarks about Canada. He stated, “None of us jumped for joy when we made those decisions, but it seemed to be one of the few ways we could signal how we felt about the bullying that has been directed towards Canada by your president.”

Similarly, travelers from Spain and China have altered their plans, with Pepa Cuevas from Madrid choosing Japan over a skiing trip in Colorado after Trump’s election. Chinese tourism interest in U.S. destinations has similarly decreased, adversely affecting international spending.

The Financial Implications of the Decline

Tourism Economics anticipates that international visitor spending in the U.S. could plummet by $9 billion in the current year. Marco Jahn, CEO of New World Travel, reported booking declines ranging from 20% to 50% over the past two months, particularly from Scandinavian nations, which have shown increased discontent toward U.S. policies.

Further Factors Impacting Travel Choices

In addition to diplomatic tensions, other factors are influencing international travel decisions. A weak yen has deterred Japanese visitors, with many opting for closer destinations such as South Korea and Taiwan due to unfavorable exchange rates. As a result, travelers are seeking locations where their currency stretches further.

Looking Ahead

While the National Travel and Tourism Office remains optimistic, projecting a 6.5% increase in arrivals by 2026, contrasting views suggest that restored international confidence in the U.S. may not return until as late as 2029. Adam Sacks, President of Tourism Economics, remarked, “The survey data is all indicating a significant mix of cancellations and a massive drop in intent to travel.”