On February 20, 2025, Sudan’s paramilitary group, the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), led by General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as Hemedti, declared the formation of a breakaway government, marking a dangerous escalation in the country’s ongoing civil war. This announcement comes 22 months after the RSF launched a violent conflict against Sudan’s military rulers, plunging the country into one of the most severe humanitarian crises in the world. The war has claimed tens of thousands of lives and displaced more than 12 million people, exacerbating an already fragile situation.
RSF’s Rise to Power and Brutality
Once aligned with Sudan’s military, the RSF has grown into a powerful faction, now claiming control over significant portions of Sudan, including parts of the capital, Khartoum, as well as vital regions such as Darfur and South Kordofan. The group’s rise has been marked by severe violence, including allegations of ethnic cleansing, forced displacement, and the use of child soldiers. The situation in Darfur has drawn widespread international condemnation, particularly due to the RSF’s brutal tactics and blatant disregard for civilian lives.
The RSF’s control over key regions has allowed it to accumulate significant political and military power. However, this has also deepened the country’s political instability, as the RSF’s expansion threatens Sudan’s unity and makes any peaceful resolution to the conflict increasingly elusive. The formation of a breakaway government by the RSF is seen as a direct challenge to Sudan’s central government, further complicating efforts to restore order and peace.
Implications for Sudan’s Political and Social Unity
The RSF’s declaration of a breakaway government has raised concerns about Sudan’s fragmentation. The central government, already struggling with internal divisions and the ongoing violence, is finding it increasingly difficult to maintain control over key territories. The RSF’s bold move risks deepening the country’s already pronounced political and social rifts, making national reconciliation and unity appear more distant than ever.
Efforts to negotiate peace and implement ceasefires, championed by international bodies such as the United Nations and the African Union, now face a major setback. The RSF’s unilateral move undermines the potential for meaningful dialogue and negotiations, as the group is unlikely to reverse its stance or engage in talks under these new terms. This creates a serious obstacle to any peace process, with the country facing even greater instability in the absence of a unified leadership.
Regional Risks: Spillover Effects on Chad and Libya
The RSF’s increased control over strategic regions raises alarms not only for Sudan but for its neighbors as well. Chad and Libya have long been involved in Sudan’s conflict, often due to historical ties with various rebel groups operating within Sudan. The RSF’s power consolidation could further complicate regional relations, potentially dragging Chad and Libya deeper into the conflict.
The situation has significant implications for the broader Sahel region, which is already facing high levels of instability. As the RSF strengthens its hold on key areas, the conflict risks spilling over, leading to further destabilization in the region. This could provoke greater military interventions and create conditions for a more widespread and destructive conflict, exacerbating the challenges faced by neighboring countries already struggling with their own political and security issues.
International Response and Growing Concerns
The international community has expressed grave concern in response to the RSF’s declaration of a breakaway government. Calls for immediate de-escalation and a renewed focus on negotiations have come from the United Nations, the African Union, and Western governments, all of which urge the parties involved to prioritize diplomacy over violence. The United Nations has warned that the conflict threatens to cause further loss of life, particularly as humanitarian needs continue to mount.
However, with the RSF’s unilateral move, achieving a peaceful resolution to the crisis seems increasingly difficult. The RSF’s actions have shifted the balance of power and raised significant obstacles to peace negotiations. The Sudanese military and opposition forces are under mounting pressure to engage in talks, but it is unclear if the RSF will be willing to participate in any process that doesn’t allow them to maintain the power they have seized.
The Future of Sudan: A Bleak Outlook
As Sudan faces the consequences of the RSF’s actions, the future of the country remains uncertain. The creation of a breakaway government has further fragmented the nation, with the central government weakened by the ongoing violence and political divisions. With both internal and external pressures building, it is difficult to see a clear path forward. The RSF’s rise to power and the country’s worsening humanitarian crisis have left the people of Sudan in an increasingly dire situation.
The international community must remain engaged in efforts to mediate a resolution, but as the conflict persists, it seems clear that Sudan’s road to peace and stability will be long and fraught with challenges. Until the deep political and military divisions within Sudan are addressed, the country will continue to suffer, and the broader region may face even greater instability.